General election: Nigel Farage says aim should be ‘zero’ net migration – UK politics live

Labour sources have confirmed to Kiran Stacey, a political correspondent for the Guardian, that Darren Rodwell, the controversial leader of Barking and Dagenham council, will not be confirmed by Labour on Tuesday as the party’s local parliamentary candidate after a series of allegations about his behaviour.

Rodwell has come under fire for a number of comments he has made in the past, including once joking he had “the worst tan possible for a black man”.

He was previously approved as a candidate by the party’s national executive committee after apologising for those remarks. But earlier this week the Independent revealed he was being investigated for alleged sexual harassment, after a woman complained he had touched her hands and legs in an inappropriate way. Rodwell has denied any inappropriate behaviour.

Dr Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, has spoken after Rishi Sunak announced his party’s commitment to capping the number of visas in an effort to make migration numbers fall year on year in a future parliament.

Dr Brindle said:

The impact of visa caps depends on how much they actually constrain migration. If the goal is to significantly reduce migration, it is more efficient from an economic perspective to impose restrictive eligibility criteria rather than to get a cap to do most of the work.

With a visa cap, the bar applicants need to reach can change unpredictably depending on how many other people apply during that period. This makes it harder for employers to plan ahead than a scenario where you have predictable but restrictive criteria for getting visas.

The impacts on public finances in the long run depend on how restrictive the eligibility criteria. The salary thresholds introduced earlier this year mean that-at least outside the health and care sector-workers will already be making net contributions to public finances. If caps further reduced the numbers beyond what is already expected to happen, we can thus expect there to be a fiscal cost.

However, it is possible that numbers will already be relatively low in the private sector due to the policy changes, and that a cap would be set at a level that did not make much difference. In other words, it’s all in the implementation.

It is not likely that restrictions on migration would have a major impact on the labour market in the medium to long term. The impacts of immigration in the labour market tend to be small. The main question marks are over the health and care sectors, which are publicly funded and where the government effectively controls pay and conditions.

These sectors have relied heavily on migration in large part due to limited funding. The impacts of restricting migration here would thus depend on whether the government was willing to use other polices (eg. on pay in the NHS and social care) to help recruit and retain staff.

It is difficult to imagine any scenario in which net migration falls to zero, even under extremely restrictive immigration policies. In practice, this would likely mean eliminating almost all work and study migration, and only admitting small numbers of family members of British citizens, as well as asylum seekers (which recent history has showed the government struggles to reduce even despite substantial policy efforts).

Labour on Tuesday marginally widened its lead to 22.3 points over the Tories (up from 21.5 points on Monday), according to Bloomberg’s polling composite, a rolling 14-day average using data from 11 UK polling companies.

A YouGov poll on Monday night suggested the Conservative party could fall to 140 seats. It showed Labour’s Keir Starmer could win a 194 majority, bigger than Tony Blair’s 179 in 1997.

Labour’s Barking candidate Darren Rodwell has been removed from the list of election candidates being approved by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) this lunchtime, BBC News reports.

In 2022, he apologised after saying he had the “worst tan possible for a black man” at a Black History Month event.

The NEC, the party’s ruling body, which is dominated by supporters of Keir Starmer, will probably make a decision over who will be Labour’s candidate in the seat in the next 48 hours, according to BBC News.

The leaders of the main parties have been warned by a watchdog not to mislead voters with dodgy statistics.

The UK Statistics Authority chairman, Robert Chote, said misusing official data in the campaign could lead to a “loss of trust” in whoever has the keys to Number 10 after the general election.

He has written to the leaders of all main political parties calling for the “appropriate and transparent” use of statistics during the campaign, the PA news agency reported.

Robert said: “The work of the UK Statistics Authority is underpinned by the conviction that official statistics should serve the public good.

“This means that when statistics and quantitative claims are used in public debate, they should enhance understanding of the topics being debated and not be used in a way that has the potential to mislead.”

He acknowledged the use of statistics in political communication is “often necessarily succinct and devoid of lengthy explanation”, but “a good rule of thumb is to consider how a reasonable person would interpret the statement being made and ensure that this is not likely to be misleading in the absence of additional information”.

He added only official statistics and publicly-available data should be used rather than unpublished figures “to which ministers have privileged access”.

The Office for Statistics Regulation will be monitoring the use of statistics during the campaign and will be willing to call out parties using them in a misleading way.

The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been outlining the Labour party’s economic policy at an event in Edinburgh.

“This is a change election, and stability is change after the 14 years that we have had,” she was quoted by Sky News as saying.

“It’s only with stability that we can grow our economy and improve living standards for ordinary working people.”

The shadow chancellor said this stability would be achieved through a “tough set of economic rules” – including paying for “day-to-day spending through tax receipts”.

Reeves faces a challenge in the coming weeks to illustrate how she can promise to keep a tight hand on the public finances while also rejuvenating ailing public services with fresh investment.

She has promised that Labour will not oversee a “return to austerity” and has ruled out increases to income tax or national insurance.

The Scottish government has been accused of “sitting on their hands” as accident and emergency waiting time figures continued to stagnate.

Monthly data released by Public Health Scotland show 67.4% of patients in April were seen and subsequently admitted, transferred or discharged within the four-hour target – the same as the month before.

The proportion of people waiting more than 12 hours jumped from 4.5% to 5.2% between March and April, while the number waiting more than eight hours increased from 11.2% to 11.7%.

Meanwhile, weekly figures show 68.5% of patients were seen within the target time in the week to 26 May, up from 66.1%.

Along with the improvement in those seen within four hours over the latest week, there was a sharp drop in the proportion waiting more than half a day, falling from 5.2% the previous week to 4%.

A similar drop was also logged in those waiting eight hours or more, from 12.2% to 10.1%.

But despite the slight improvements, Scottish Conservative health spokesperson Dr Sandesh Gulhane said the summer period should have yielded bigger changes.

He said:

SNP ministers shamefully continue to sit on their hands while our A&E departments remain in permanent crisis mode.

With the NHS’s peak winter period well behind us, we should be seeing significant improvements. But due to SNP mismanagement we’re not – and lives are being needlessly lost as a result.

The double whammy of the SNP’s dire workforce planning and the failure of (former health secretary and first minister) Humza Yousaf’s flimsy recovery plan mean it is the shocking norm that over a third of patients have to wait over four hours to be seen.

As a practising GP, I know how hard my frontline colleagues are working to provide the highest standard of care for patients, but they simply don’t have the resources to meet the huge demands placed upon them.

Health secretary Neil Gray praised the performance improvements, but admitted waiting times are still unsatisfactory.

Rajeev Syal is home affairs editor of the Guardian

Commenting on proposals for caps on migration, Adis Sehic, senior research and policy officer at the employment charity Work Rights Centre said:

While ministers and candidates are focusing heavily on the numbers of migrant workers, they would do well to also consider the welfare of people coming to the UK to work and those already here.

It is clear that there are growing problems with the existing visa systems – hundreds of migrant care workers have been left scammed and destitute, while seasonal horticultural workers have reported mistreatment on multiple UK farms. Reform of these visa routes is desperately needed.

Visa caps do nothing to improve the lives of exploited workers, while a cap on family migration will arbitrarily punish British citizens as well as migrants, by separating them from their loved ones.

Seven Labour councillors in Slough have reportedly resigned after accusing the Labour party of institutional racism (the Slough and South Bucks Observer have a report here).

The councillors were Zaffar Ajaib, Sabia Akram, Haqeeq Dar, Mohammed Nazir, Naveeda Qaseem, Waqas Sabah and Jamilia Sabah.

In their resignation statement, posted to X by Taj Ali, co-editor of Tribune magazine, they wrote:

We, the undersigned members and Labour Councillors of the Slough Constituency Labour party, express our profound disillusionment and anger.

For over two years, since our CLP was placed into special measures by the south-east region and the NEC, we have been systematically deprived of our democratic rights. Our ability to form, debate and influence policies has been dismantled.

They cited grievances over the treatment of Faiza Shaheen and Diane Abbott as well as the party’s stance on Israel’s war in Gaza.

Shaheen, who was blocked by Labour from standing in Chingford and Woodford Green, shared Ali’s tweet, saying “thank you, and you’re right about the institutional racism”.

Last year, all the Labour councillors (18 at the time) in Slough called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza – a position that was at odds with Keir Starmer’s position.

In a joint statement, they said: “human rights and adherence to international law must prevail”.

Kiran Stacey is a political correspondent based in Westminster

Labour will launch an investigation into the treatment of migrant workers in the British social care sector if it wins the election, the party has announced, after dozens of cases of alleged exploitation were uncovered.

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, called the allegations revealed by the Guardian “a disgrace”, accusing the government of turning a blind eye to the problem.

She said Labour would back calls by the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) for a full investigation into the experience of people who say they have been left trapped in the UK with debts of up to £20,000 and little or none of the work they were promised.

Cooper said: “The government has turned a blind eye to widespread exploitation of migrant care workers, putting vulnerable people at risk and undermining our immigration system and standards.

“Stories of people being unfairly charged thousands of pounds by agencies and employers who are profiting from overseas recruitment are a total disgrace. There must be a full investigation into these reports to ensure standards are upheld, and exploitative employers are prosecuted.”

She added that the crackdown on exploitation in the care sector would be led by the new enforcement body Labour plans to introduce to oversee new employment rights.

The Guardian last week reported the experiences of more than 30 people who have arrived from India in the past two years to work in the British care sector.

All of them paid thousands of pounds to immigration agents, and in one case to a UK care provider itself, to secure visas to come to the country. But almost all were told when they arrived that there was not enough work to provide the full-time employment they had been promised.

As a result most remain stuck in the UK, struggling to pay off the debts they have incurred. Many have appealed to the Home Office, police and the care regulator, but none has been fully reimbursed.

You can read the full story here:

Keir Starmer has also been asked about immigration by reporters in Bolton. He said it has become “out of control” under the Conservatives and said the Tory announcement for a cap on migration visas (see earlier post at 08.55) was meaningless as they have not given a number. It is a “cap without a cap”, he said.

“Net migration is far too high, this government has lost control. It’s more than twice as high as it was when we were in the EU, that’s the irony of it,” Starmer told the media.

“This prime minister is actually, for all his tough talk, the most liberal prime minister when it comes to immigration, those numbers have gone through the roof.”

But the Labour party leader refused to give a figure for his migration target, only saying he wants it to come down and to focus on tackling skills shortages and bad employment practices.

Last year’s net migration figure of 685,000 has “got to come down,” Starmer told The Sun on Sunday.

Keir Starmer has met people at the Bridge cafe in Bolton on a campaign visit before Tuesday’s 9pm ITV debate with Rishi Sunak. The Labour party leader is accompanied by shadow work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall.

Starmer told journalists that he had not spoken to Diane Abbott since the controversy over her selection as a candidate, but added his team had been in touch with her.

He told broadcasters at the Bridge cafe in Bolton:

I have spoken to Diane two or three months ago, my team have obviously been speaking to her, but that decision is taken, that’s clear.

The question now before the country is about the decision, the choice, that will fall to be made on 4 July, which is continuing with this chaos and division or turning the page and starting to rebuild the country with Labour.

The Guardian understands that Abbott will be reselected to fight her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat at a meeting of the Labour party’s executive this afternoon.

She was suspended from the party last year after writing a letter to the Observer saying that Jewish people and Travellers suffered prejudice but not racism, comparing their experiences with those of people with red hair.

Abbott apologised for her remarks but was placed under investigation and lost the Labour whip.

The Guardian also understands that Apsana Begum is also on the list of party candidates to be nodded through by the NEC despite speculation that she could be blocked.

The Guardian’s Scotland Correspondent, Libby Brooks, has this report on thefirst leaders’ debate in Scotland last night:

The SNP has accused Scottish Labour of “completely rewriting” Rachel Reeves’s spending plans, as the party leaders took part in the first televised debate of the election campaign.

The clash between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats was screened by STV, without a studio audience, and involved intensive cross-examination of each leader by his political rivals.

With recent polling suggesting that Labour could make significant gains on 4 July, in particular in seats in Glasgow and across the central belt, the SNP leader, John Swinney, told Anas Sarwar that his pledges for more spending on the NHS, schools and renewables projects contradicted the constraints laid out by Reeves.

“You have completely rewritten the Labour finance strategy. You cannot escape the fact that you have signed up to the Tories’ fiscal agenda, the austerity agenda,” said Swinney. “You are locked into that and you will not be able to deliver those commitments.”

On Tuesday Reeves, the shadow chancellor, will visit Edinburgh, where she will unveil plans to boost the country’s financial services industry and promise to “unleash Scotland’s economic firepower to deliver jobs and growth”.

Sarwar, Swinney and the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, also clashed over the future of the oil and gas sector, with the SNP and Tories facing off in a number of seats in north-east Scotland most affected by transition plans.

Sarwar accused Swinney of being “on the side of BP and Shell, not nurses” in the middle of a cost of living crisis.

You can read the full story here:

Keir Starmer, the Labour party leader, is due to make a campaign announcement on Labour’s energy policy this morning.

He will say his party would “close the door on” the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, by reducing Britain’s reliance on fossil fuel from overseas.

Starmer will claim his party’s plan to set up a publicly owned clean energy company, GB Energy, will help to protect the UK from spikes in the price of fuel like those that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Labour has said GB Energy would be headquartered in Scotland as a “homegrown, publicly owned champion in clean energy generation” to enable the creation of jobs and manufacturing in Britain’s renewables sector.

The party has, however, been accused of putting jobs at risk over its commitment to not issue any new oil and gas licences if it wins power at the general election.

The SNP said the proposals, along with Labour’s plan to increase taxes on companies’ profits, would put thousands of Scottish jobs at risk.

Former Conservative MP Mark Logan has arrived at a Labour party campaign event in Greater Manchester.

The former MP, who announced his support for Labour after the start of the general election campaign, spoke to pensioners while waiting for Keir Starmer’s arrival at the event. The picture below was taken by the Sun’s political correspondent Noa Hoffman.

Logan, who represented Bolton North East for the Tories until parliament dissolved last week, has said the Tory party was “now unrecognisable” from the one he joined a decade ago and that Labour could “bring back optimism into British life”.

Natalie Elphicke and Dan Poulter crossed the floor this year, while Christian Wakeford defected to the Labour party in 2022.